From blueberries to cattle, drought leaves mark in WNC

ASHEVILLE - Rainfall in August has taken the edge off drought conditions in Western North Carolina, but hot and dry weather have hurt some areas of agriculture and could linger into fall.

Buncombe County has been in a drought since April, according to the North Carolina Drought Management Advisory report, which is published weekly. Buncombe and surrounding counties have ranged between three categories – abnormally dry, moderate drought and severe drought.

Buncombe was listed as abnormally dry in the most recent report. Clay, Graham, Haywood, Jackson, and Macon counties remained in a moderate drought, while Cherokee was listed in a severe drought.

The dry conditions came as climate scientists recorded July being the hottest month on record in Asheville, with data going back to 1902. The monthly average temperature was 78.9 degrees, 4.2 degrees above normal. The previous record was set in 1993.

“I don’t like to make light of drought but it’s part of our climate,” said Rebecca Ward, a state office climatologist. “It’s typical and these things come and go.”

Farmers, cows feel side effects

Regional drought has browned grass, lowered hay yields, left some creek beds dry and caused tulip and yellow poplar trees to lose their leaves, Ward said.

“Agriculture impacts…That’s how we’ve been seeing this drought progress,” she said.

Farmers in Buncombe County haven’t seen a major decrease in annual crops like tomatoes, corn and cold beans, since most are watered through irrigation. Reductions have been seen in hay and livestock profits, Buncombe County Extension Director Steve Duckett said.

Hickory Nut Gap Farm experienced a shortage in grass and hay growth in June, farm manager Walker Sides said.

"It affected our grass from coming back in between grazing," Sides said. "We would come back to a field and it hadn't grown back in time."

There has also been "early marketing of calves to relieve pressure to the feed supplies,” Duckett said.

Typically, a calf is sold at seven to nine months but recently farmers have had to sell animals earlier, which reduces profit.

“The reason that happens is if the cow is not providing milk for that calf then she can make it on a lot less feed,” he said.
Farmers have had to purchase feed since it’s not being grown naturally due to the dryness.

For blueberry pickers, the berries have been smaller this year due to the hot and dry June and July.

A drought hasn't stretched into Henderson County though. Instead growers have been fighting excessive rain and hail, according to Marvin Owings, director of the Henderson County Cooperative Extension.

Cause of the 2016 drought

A rainfall deficit started in January and continued for the first six months of the year.

Rainfall measured at Asheville Regional Airport since the beginning of the year is 2.24 inches below average, according to data from the National Weather Service in Greer, South Carolina.

Beginning in late June, monthly rainfall totals have bounced back to near or above normal but it’s not enough to cut into the prolonged period of drought, said Doug Miller, a professor in the atmospheric sciences department at UNC Asheville.

The rainfall total from Aug. 1-24, was 6.58 inches, which was 3.41 inches above normal, according to the National Weather Service. Last year, 2.68 inches of rain fell from Aug. 1-24.

Fall and winter outlook

La Niña is on the horizon with rainfall predicted to be below normal and temperatures to be above normal, Ward said.

La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, which Western North Carolina experienced last winter, and typically builds at the end of fall and into the winter, Miller said. The pattern of cooler-than-average winter temperatures in the Pacific Ocean tends to bring dry, warm weather to the southern U.S. in the winter.

Whether any type of La Niña happens remains uncertain, said Anthony Artusa, a meteorologist and seasonal forecaster at the Maryland-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center.

"Current data shows that if one manifests, it would be weak," he said.

Predicting a long-term weather outlook is challenging, Miller said.

“There is more going on than just La Niña and El Niño,” he said.

“El Niña alone doesn’t tell you what will happen,” Miller said. “If it was the only thing to happen we would expect moderate temperatures (relatively warm winter), but nearly normal in terms of precipitation,” he said.

Drought conditions could end up lasting for more than a year, he said. "You can have a drought that lasts for an entire calendar year like 2007 and 2008. It took a very rainy late summer and fall of 2009 to break us out of that."

Number of days that reached above-average temperatures:

June 2015: 21 days           June 2016: 23 days 

July 2015: 21 days            July 2016: 28 days

Number of days that reached 90 degrees or warmer:

June 2015: 2 days             June 2016: 4 days

July 2015: 7 days               July 2016: 8 days

Source: National Weather Service

Editor's note: Asheville averages 49.19 inches of rainfall per year. A previous version included an incorrect number for average rainfall.