Fall leaf colors delayed, expected to be spotty

CULLOWHEE - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures throughout the mountains have kept leaves green so far this fall and trees that have gradually begun to turn appear as little specks of color among the landscape. 

However, with a range of elevations from 2,000 to 6,000 feet, leaf peepers are bound to find color somewhere even if it is less spectacular this year, said Beverly Collins, Western Carolina University’s fall foliage forecaster. 

"Even if the colors are not as consistently changed or as bright, it is still beautiful weather here and a great time to visit," she said. 

The leaf season in the mountains generally does vary, said Asheville Convention & Visitors Bureau's Marla Tambellini, vice president of marketing.

"We always try to explain to people that we have the most extended fall foliage season in the country, not only because of the variations in elevations but also because of the wealth and depth and breadth of tree species we have," she said. "We’ve had years where we’ve had beautiful color all the way into mid-November and even Thanksgiving.”

This fall though, warmer temperatures have kept leaves from turning toward the end of September and early October. Additionally, some leaves have turned brown due to the severe drought that crept into the mountains over the summer, Collins said. 

Last month's average temperature of 71.9 degrees Fahrenheit was 5.6 degrees above normal, which is right in line with a global spike in average temperatures in recent years, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information center. 

The NCEI reported that July was the 15th consecutive record warmest month globally and in Asheville it was the hottest since 1902. State climate officials say the monthly average temperatures recorded at Asheville Regional Airport since mid-February have ranged from slightly above normal to almost 7 degrees above normal.

The seven farthest western counties in the state, including Jackson County, were listed to be in a severe drought Friday, according to the North Carolina Drought Monitor, which is updated each week on Thursdays. Buncombe County along with 13 other counties were listed in a moderate drought, according to the monitor. 

Another factor at play could be Hurricane Matthew, Collins said. 

"The predicted wind from the hurricane may also impact us by blowing off some of the leaves," she said.

Some positive news is that colder weather is in the forecast for Sunday with cool nights and warmer days, Collins added. If that's the case, colors could peak relatively close to normal. 

"We may very well see that the weather this weekend and beyond may bring out the colors," she said. 

But overall, fall color is emerging later this year, she added. 

Typically, a good cold snap where nighttime temperatures dip into the 30s, followed by bright sunny days, will kick the leaves into high gear, Tambellini added.

Peak fall color should arrive five to ten days after the first frost at any particular location. 

The best bet for foliage fans is to plan on peak color the weekend of Oct. 15-16 for the highest elevations more than 4,000 feet, the weekend of Oct. 22-23 for the middle elevations of 2,500 to 4,000 feet and the remainder of October for lower elevations, according to Collins. 

For the next 10 days, the National Weather Service predicts lows in the upper 40s during the night and low 70s or upper 60s during the day. 

Leaf season is also hugely important for the local economy.

“October and July have traditionally battled it out for which month is has the highest demand (for hotel rooms),” Tambellini said. “The average daily rates tend to be a little higher in October for the most part.”

In 2015, the average daily rate for October was $174.61, the highest ADR for the year.  

Plan colorful fall excursion in Jackson County

Catch best fall leaf viewing spots in the Smokies

Staff writer John Boyle contributed to this report.